Potensi Untung Dan Risiko Investasi di Pasar Bearish

The Risks and Rewards of Investing in a Bear Market

By Justin Fox Thursday, Oct. 23,


Benjamin Graham was well prepared for the Crash of 1929. The now legendary investor had hedged his bets: he would buy preferred stock in a company and sell short common stock in the same company. When stocks crashed in October 1929, common shares fell much faster than preferreds, and Graham made a lot of money off short sales.


But after the crash, most of those preferred shares seemed so cheap that Graham couldn’t bear to part with them, he wrote in his memoirs. They kept falling, and his profit soon turned to a loss. His fund (equivalent to a modern hedge fund) ended the year down 20%. In 1930 it dropped 50.5%; in 1931 16%; in 1932 3%. “The stock market,” as Graham resignedly put it in the first edition of his book with David Dodd, Security Analysis (1934), “is a voting machine rather than weighing machine.” Continue reading


Warren Buffet Belanja

Dari NYT.
Buy American. I Am.

Published: October 16, 2008

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why? Continue reading

S&P US Economic Outlook

How Low Can We Go?

Projections are a stock in trade for economists. Here are Standard & Poor’s.

By David Wyss From Standard & Poor’s Equity Research

The economy will likely suffer a moderate, but long recession, and a sluggish recovery, according to S&P Economics. From the December 2007 peak to a trough in May 2009, this expected 17-month recession would be longer than the 50-year average of 10.7 months, and near the longest recessions of 1975 and 1982. Continue reading

Strategi Opsi (Options) Saat VIX – Implied Volatility Diatas 70%

Akhir2 ini Dow Jones, S&P ataupun Nasdaq bergerak sangat fluktuatif. Akibatnya, implied volatility (IV) naik drastis ke lebih dari 70%. Biasanya, disituasi yang demikian, jika anda baca buku2 options, kebanyakan akan merekomendasikan strategi selling options: positive theta, negative gamma atau negative vega. untuk memanfaatkan IV yang tinggi tersebut. Masalahnya, walapun IV tinggi, pergerakkan harganya pun cukup dahsyat. Akibatnya banyak yang psikologinya akan goncang akibat adanya serangan bertubi-tubi dari gamma dan delta. Kalau anda kuat, bagus. Kalau tidak, akan sering cut-loss disaat yang tidak tepat.

Disituasi yang sulit ini, kalau anda kurang kuat mental tradingnya, sebaiknya menggunakan strategi yang long atau short delta dengan vega, gamma ataupun theta yang kecil. Atau dengan kata lain, gunakan options dengan resiko terbatas. Tentunya, semakin kecil resikonya, semakin kecil pula expected returnnya.

There is no free lunch.

Just my 2 cents.


Alternatif Energy – Lebih Murah Dari Batu Bara?

Teknologi berbasis nano tampaknya tidak lama lagi bisa banyak membantu mengurangi krisis energi dunia. Yang jelas, dana2 modal ventura mulai banyak mengalir ke industri baru berbasis nano ini, persis seperti yang terjadi pada industri internet di awal tahun 1990an.

Thin Film Solar Power – Cheaper than Coal ?

Thin film solar company Nanosolar has now shipped its first solar panels and begun an auction for the second panel produced – now cancelled by eBay because Nanosolar decided to donate the purchase price to charity (the third pnael has been donated to the Tech Museum in San Jose, california), leading to speculation that the (direct) cost of solar power is now cheaper than coal (and falling).

While it is still too early to tell whether or not Nanoslar can meet their goal of producing cells at $1 per watt, the fact that the company has constructed a manufacturing plant and begun shipping the product to a paying customer (in Germany) is a good sign.

The first plant is reportedly capable of producing 430 megawatts a year of cells, which is a respectable amount compared to the total amount of photovoltaic manufacturing capacity currently in place. Continue reading

Bill Gross On Capitalism

Nothing to Fear but McFear Itself

A Simple Explanation
We are to the point of fearing fear itself. America in all its resplendent free market capitalistic glory is on the auction block with few bidders. How this came to be is obvious in retrospect: too much exuberant leverage, not enough regulation; too strong a belief in asset-based prosperity, too little common sense that prices could go down as well as up; excessive “me first” greed, too little concern for the burden of future generations; a political morass unworthy of our Founding Fathers. You may have more to add to the list, but frankly there isn’t enough time. Historians can sit back and reflect, but at this very moment, America is for sale and there is fear and trembling in the auctioneer’s voice. Continue reading

Kanker Otak Dan Matematika

OOT, dari Forbes.

Can Math Cure Cancer?
Robert Langreth 10.02.08, 6:00 PM ET
Forbes Magazine dated October 27, 2008

Kristin Swanson

The 200 Best Small Companies
Pockets of Prosperity
Hard Charger
Complete Contents

Radical researchers aim to customize cancer treatment with computer simulations.

In her laboratory at the University of Washington, mathematician Kristin Rae Swanson peers into the future of brain cancer patients–on her computer screen. She has created a software program that uses data from magnetic resonance imaging scans to simulate how fast a patient’s brain tumor is likely to spread. She can pinpoint with uncanny precision where a tumor will grow months ahead of time and predict how long a patient is likely to live under various treatment scenarios.

She first proposed the idea ten years ago and “was laughed out of the room” by skeptical doctors who figured brain tumor growth was too erratic to predict, Swanson says. But she has developed an equation that takes into account how fast tumors divide and disperse through brain tissue and can predict their path. It takes three hours on a PC to run a patient’s data through this simulation. She has found that her model is accurate in predicting cancer progression in 350 patients, including 30 still undergoing treatment.

Swanson, who was inspired to go into cancer research after her father died of lung cancer, hopes her simulation will lead to a new generation of customized brain cancer treatments. Right now brain glioblastoma patients typically get once-daily radiation for six weeks. But her computer model predicts that some slow-growing tumors could be treated just as well with less-frequent radiation, sparing patients bad side effects. Others with fast-proliferating tumors would live longer with smaller doses of radiation two or three times a day. A human trial with customized radiation therapy could begin next year. Continue reading