Trading Opsi, Mudah?

Ada yang datang ke saya dan berkata: Pak saya punya strategi opsi yang risikonya rendah (karena break evennya jauh dibawah harga beli) dan punya upside potential yang tinggi. Ini bukan gambling pak, karena kemungkinan kalahnya kecil. Dia lupa prinsip : There is no free lunch. Low risk, low gain. Kemungkinan lossnya mungkin memang kecil, tapi kemungkinan gainnya juga tidak kalah kecilnya. Malahan dengan broker bid-ask spread, kemungkinan menang jadi lebih kecil dari kemungkinan kalah. There is no free lunch.

Setelah saya kutak-katik strategi dia, teman saya baru mengerti bahwa the strategy is not as good as he previously thought (strategi tsb tidak sebaik yang dia pikirkan sebelumnya)!

Happy trading!

Larry Williams on Market Prediction

LARRY: The randomness. There’s a huge amount of randomness in the stock market and commodity markets, and that’s why you bet small because at any given time, while I may have a market that’s perfectly set up, Greenspan says something and literally in 3 or 4 words can change everybody’s – all the investors, the Commercials’ the public’s – view of the marketplace. Because the markets are uncontrolled, there’s such a high degree of randomness in them, that’s why you’ve got to bet small, because you’re absolutely right. I remember when President Eisenhower had his heart attack and the market just crashed. It came back a little, well, it did come back in almost a couple of days. The same thing in the Kennedy assassination, the market broke real bad. Nobody knew that was going to happen, but a lot of money was lost. The crash of 1987 was a 3 or 4 day event, but it wiped out billions and billions of dollars. So, you have to have your protection against those excess moves in the marketplace that I think are totally unpredictable. And like you said, I’ve been doing this for 45 years. I’ve seen everybody try to predict the market and nobody – and I’ll underscore, nobody – has ever been able to correctly predict the market for very long. Maybe they’ll get lucky. I’ve gotten lucky a couple of times – called a high and a low –  but can I do it successfully all the time? Nobody does it. Nobody’s ever done it. So you’re going to have losses. You got to protect yourself from that. [34:40]

Does Win/Loss Percentage Even Mean Anything?

Dari TradingMarkets.Com

Does Win/Loss Percentage Even Mean Anything?

One of my biggest pet peeves in this business is that of traders constantly searching for that perfect system, newsletter, or so-called “guru” that will catapult them from failure or inconsistent performance to immediate and consistent profitability, when no such thing exists. As such, one of the industry myths I wanted to address as a prelude to setups was the following: So what’s the big deal about probability? Well, I strongly believe that success in trading is far more dependent upon the understanding, acceptance and application of probability principles than any other facet. While the concept of probability may seem simple and reinforcing for some traders, grasping and making probability do the work for you remains a strong challenge for many who continue to struggle in their trading journey.

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