Norman Packard on Chaos

Chaos is a particular kind of random motion, one that combines both randomness and structure. The system starts somewhere in space and goes along until it falls onto an attractor. With the simplest kind of attractor, a fixed point, the system goes toward a single state and stays there. You see this with a marble [...]

Norman Packard on Stock Market State Space

A strange attractor is an object in state space just as an ashtray is an object in state space. Except that in a state space the coordinates are not like x,y,z coordinates. They depend on context. Let me give you an example. The state space of the stock market is the value of all the [...]

Warren Buffet on Efficent Market Hypothesis

Observing that the market was frequently efficient, they went on to conclude incorrectly that the market was always efficient. The difference between the propositions is night and day.

Dollar Cost Averaging – Apakah Efektif?

Sering mungkin investor mendengar rekomendasi pakar-pakar keuangan untuk menggunakan metode Dollar (Rupiah) Cost Averaging ( selanjutnya kita sebut DCA), dalam investasi mereka di pasar saham. Metode ini sering direkomendasikan untuk mengurangi risiko portofolio investor dari volatilitas pasar saham. Akibatnya, nilai portofolio investor lebih stabil, membuat mereka bisa tidur dengan tenteram.

Riding Out The Volatile Market

This was an article on Jakarta Post – August 30, 2007 edition, or about a month ago, printed under a slightly different title (edited by the newspaper editor, though I like the above title better). Riding Out The Volatile Market The recent equity market turmoil triggered by problems in the U.S. sub-prime lending activities saddled [...]

Saham, Growth dan P/E (2)

Pernah dengar perusahaan bernama Yahoo? Tentu saja. Sebagai pengguna jasa internet, hampir pasti anda mengenal perusahaan ini. Yahoo sampai sekarang masih mendominasi bisnis internet segmen technology/internet services provider. Lalu, bagaimana dengan kinerja saham Yahoo? Pastinya bagus dong? Mungkin tidak seperti yang anda bayangkan. Kenapa bisa begitu? Masalah utamanya adalah masalah valuasi Yahoo di awal 2000 [...]

Warren Buffet On Look Forward, Not Back

Of course, the investor of today doesn’t profit from yesterday’s growth.

Reksadana Indeks – Sejarah dan Prospek

Tadinya versi ini yang akan dikirim ke Kompas (2006). Tapi setelah berbagai pertimbangan, versi yang satu lagi yang dikirim. (Lihat posting mengenai Rekadana Indeks, bulan lalu). Reksadana Indeks – Sejarah dan Prospek Pada tahun 1974, sebuah artikel di Journal Portfolio Management mengejutkan industri pasar modal Amerika Serikat (Wall Street). Di artikel tersebut, sang penulis menganjurkan [...]

Boring Dow

Praktis ‘side ways’ setelah pre-opening up 80 poin. Tapi, hati-hati! Bisa explosif sebelum closing karena hari ini, kontrak opsi September akan expired.

Treasury Bonds dan Dow Futures Pre-Fed

Two hours into trading, 10 year Treasury Futures gap down (yield up), sedangkan Dow Jones Futures gap up. Both – not yet filled di awal trading ini. Interesting!